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The headline GfK measure fell sharply in January (left panel, Chart 2.13), to its lowest level since December 2023, while the S&P UK Consumer Sentiment Index also fell notably. Bank staff expect quarterly growth of 0.4% and 0.6% in 2024 Q4 and 2025 Q1, respectively. Business investment growth has been strong recently, expanding by 1.9% in 2024 Q3 and having grown by nearly 1% per quarter on average over the past two years. Three-month on three-month growth in GDP and quarterly GDP growth implied by business surveys (a) The collective steer from surveys now points to a further slowdown in underlying growth at the end of 2024 and into the start of this year (Chart 2.12). GDP growth was above the steer from surveys of businesses’ activity in the first half of last year but then slowed to a rate below what these surveys implied in Q3.
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Given the complex nature of global supply chains, some of the UK’s exports to other countries are used as intermediate inputs to goods and services ultimately destined for the US market. In 2023, 22% of UK gross exports were sold on the US market, accounting for 7% of UK GDP or about £190 billion. While tariffs are likely to lower UK economic activity, the overall effect on UK inflation is unclear. This box therefore sets out a framework for how US tariffs on other economies could affect UK output and inflation, discussing the main transmission channels and their likely directional impact. Although households’ inflation expectations appear to be in line with their fundamental economic drivers, there is a risk that higher expectations add to the persistence of inflationary pressures (Key judgement 3 in Section 1). The MPC will continue to monitor closely developments in inflation expectations measures.
At the time of the February 2024 Report, the evidence suggested that there had been no significant drag on productivity due to the recent energy price shock.footnote Updated analysis continues to support this conclusion. In time, this may be reflected in the LFS data as they incorporate the latest National Population Projections. That said, alternative data sources imply stronger employment growth since mid-2021, which would also reduce measured productivity on a per worker basis. Mechanically this has resulted from moderate GDP growth of 0.9% being outpaced by much stronger growth in total hours worked. In addition, the impacts of the recently increased rates of National Insurance contributions (see Box D), which were incorporated into the November 2024 forecast, are also expected to weigh on participation.
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Business surveys have suggested a smoother path for GDP growth in recent quarters. Although GDP growth has been more volatile than suggested by business surveys, underlying growth appears to have slowed since the middle of last year. Having grown solidly in the first half of the year, GDP growth was flat in 2024 Q3, 0.2 percentage points below the projection in the November Report. In line with the recovery in housing market activity, nominal house prices have continued to pick up. Banks responding to the 2024 Q4 Credit Conditions Survey also reported increased availability of secured lending to households, which was expected to continue into 2025 Q1. Consumer credit growth has moderated somewhat in recent months, to 6.5% in December, and is now broadly in line with its 2012–19 average.
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